Why The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In And What’s Next: Expert

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Bitcoin halving not priced in

In his latest video update on YouTube, renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital delved into the complex dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s halving events, articulating a compelling case for why the market has yet to fully price in the halving which took place on April 19. Drawing on historical data and patterns, Rekt Capital provided an in-depth analysis of the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements post-halving, suggesting that substantial growth phases still lie ahead.

Why The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In

Rekt Capital began by revisiting the historical impact of Bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the block reward received by miners by half. This constriction in supply, if demand remains constant or increases, typically leads to a significant price increase. “The Bitcoin halving is not priced in,” Rekt Capital asserted, pointing out that each previous halving led to a rally that not only reached but also surpassed previous all-time highs.

“The halving every four years always precedes a fantastic surge in Bitcoin’s price action towards new all-time highs,” he noted. This consistent pattern forms a compelling narrative that the post-halving market dynamics are predictable to a degree, yet complex enough to remain partially unanticipated by the market. “Two phases remain in the cycle: The Post-Halving Re-Accumulation phase (red) and the Parabolic Rally phase (green),” he stated.

Focusing on the reaccumulation phase that traditionally follows each halving, Rekt Capital highlighted that this phase typically lasts about 160 days. During this period, the market often sees a consolidation of price before a breakout leads to a parabolic rally. “We are currently in a reaccumulation period again in this cycle. This is post-halving reaccumulation,” he stated, emphasizing the significance of this phase in setting the stage for the next bull run.

Bitcoin halving price analysis
Bitcoin halving price analysis | Source: @rektcapital

The analyst elaborated on the nature of these cycles, noting deviations in the current trends compared to past cycles. “This cycle is exhibiting an accelerated rate, with new all-time highs appearing 260 days prior to the halving, a first in Bitcoin’s history,” he explained. Such deviations suggest that while historical patterns provide a roadmap, each cycle can introduce new dynamics that affect market behavior.

Rekt Capital did not overlook the potential risks and market corrections that could occur. He warned of the initial rejection often seen after reaching the high range of post-halving prices, a trend noted in previous cycles. “Every time we’ve seen an initial attempt to get to the range high resistance after the halving, that first attempt after the halving is one that rejects,” he explained. This observation is crucial for investors expecting immediate gains post-halving, as it tempers overly optimistic expectations with a realistic view of possible short-term retracements.

The analyst also addressed the issue of diminishing returns in successive cycles, a factor that seasoned Bitcoin investors watch closely. While each cycle’s peak has historically been higher than the last, the rate of growth has slowed. “If this was a one-to-one extension from what we saw in the previous cycle, getting us to $250,000 might be unrealistic this time around, and we are probably looking at a more subdued increase,” he predicted.

Nonetheless, Rekt Capital maintained a bullish outlook for the long term, suggesting that while the explosive growth rates of early cycles might not repeat, the overall upward trajectory of Bitcoin’s price post-halving remains intact. “This is going to be the most parabolic phase of the cycle where we see those gains come very quickly in a short space of time,” he concluded, affirming the significant opportunities that lie ahead for Bitcoin investors.

At press time, BTC traded at $68,561.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price stands below key resistance, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons

Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field. His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone. With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage. Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control. For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it’s a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality. As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies. In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time. You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.

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